Spring in the Arctic is the period when the ice starts melting to the arrival of the sun, still higher horizon. It 'a pretty important time for the subsequent development of minimum extent of ice in summer. Osserviamone climate trends of the last decades starting from the framework of the anomalies of surface last decade compared with the averages shown in the illustration initial 68-96.

As you can clearly see in the chart in the Arctic over the last decade in springtime, we had very strong anomaly zones, even up to +4 ° average, off the coast of Siberia, between Svalbard and New Zemlija Sea and Baffin Island to the west and NW Greenland. In the chart I've marked some locations sub-Arctic locations radio detections, of which we will see the weather conditions at theezze of 850 and 500 hPa.

We see first the evolution of pressure at sea level in the Arctic (70-90N) according to data from Trenbert since 1899:

The spring temperatures at the surface according to data from the NOAA-NCDC 1929:

As seen from the graphs we are experiencing quite a warm, warmer and with lower average pressures also the previous warm period of the years 30-40. The minimum temperature was recorded in the late 60 and after 1987 there was a strong and decisive climate jumped by about 1 ° using a step further in the last 10 years.

Now to the details of the air in the troposphere, the UAH lower troposphere data still on the strip 70-90N spring since 1979

One can see even in the UAH data, measured by the satellites, which in the '90s there was a very hot stage followed by another wave in the 2000s. The UAH data is not identical to data NCDC surface DCIS shows a decline in recent years.

He observed the data of the sub-Arctic stations Alert (Canada), Barrow (Alaska), Sodankila (Finland), Jan Mayen (Arctic Atlantic) and Turuhansk (Siberia) at odds of 850 and 500 hPa. First an overview per month (every month) temperature trends from 1958 onwards, 850, 500 hPa and a zoom from 1997 onwards:

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The average figure of sub-Arctic stations, shows us a very warm phase in 2000, and appears less pronounced in the 90s. We also show a remarkable agreement with respect to UAH falling in recent years.

Also evident in a certain "disconnect" between the data at 500 and 850hpa, closer to the surface anomalies were felt for more, to over half a degree and slightly less in recent months.

But this was the general monthly data, we see now as the spring months only:

That's the figure now looks a lot like spring UAH also showing it as a "hump" hot in the '90s, especially in Apriland March. While in recent years appears to be falling in March, May and April have shown their anomalies maggioritra 2003 and 2007.

The considerations that can be made about the similarities with the general trend of GW when you notice the anomalies monthly to bring a bit higher after 1976. The springs have suffered so evident only after 1985 with no evidence of significant warming in the '90s and then, after a brief period of decline a new strong wave hot in 2000 extended over all months of the year and also in springs. This fact highlights the trend of declining Arctic ice, especially after 1998. The springs seem to have already suffered 90 years of decreases in temperature in the stratosphere after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in a dramatic increase but not evident in patterns annually.

The decline in tropospheric recent years, after 2007, it also reflects the recovery of extensionsice took place after the minimum of 2007 (note the maximum anomaly on the ground in the spring of 2007) and / or it could be the cause. We'll see what does the future springs from that 2010 has just begun.

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We had seen the figure ERSST ocean which gave a slight increase in February compared to January, HadSST2 also brings a slight increase and instead OIv2 a slight decline. The data, however, are all pretty consistent and very close to the average common with maximum deviation of 0.03 °. Since many anomalies confirms the status of the oceans. We see the detail of the data since 1997 with mesyl data OIv2:

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For the data in the first area we see as the AMO SSTA (abnormal surface and then the given index (AMO detrendizzato):

As seen from the graphs has been a slight overall decline, according OIv2 in both hemispheres, a marked decrease in the Nino 3.4 and a decrease in the Arctic. Increases rather than decided at the IPWP and north-Atlantic (AMO).

To get an idea of the variousactions ocean in one year and one we see the differences between February 2010 and February 2009:

Quite evident that the sharp increases depends mainly on the area ENSO and tropical Atlantic and Indian. Decrease instead of the sections opposite to the "warm tongue" of Nino and IPWP east side (Indonesia).

February to complete the data are still lacking official data NOAA, GISS and Hadley.

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We make a first rough analysis of the winters of the 2000s. What has characterized the years during the winters, what changes there have been average, in different parts of the globe?

In the first picture I put the differences in GPT at 500 hPa between the 2000s and '90s and that I would say that we can provide the most important and comprehensive view of changes have occurred in the last 10 winters:

We see the reflection on the temperatures at ground

The considerations are obviously the same as before, the antizonalità increased compared to the 90's, very neighborhood, brought significantly decreased in both the NH mid-range in Siberia, Mongolia, north China and in central and northern Europe and the USA. Increased antizonalità in the south polar region has instead led to strong decreases in Antarctic coastal areas and increased in the central area. Strong increases in temperatures on the north polar area, northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland.

Note the large increase in the area IPWP.

We see the trend number of winters in the last 60 years come anomalies at 500hPa on some bands GPT significant (reanalisi NOAA):

the two polar areas, 90-70N and 90-60S:

We note the increase of GPT on the north polar region from the absolute minimum period that occurred around 90 years, years of strong zonal and compactness of the VP. In the south polar region instead we have only the oscillations with a phase slightly positive in half 'of the 2000s. Record last winter in the north polar area.

Note that in recent years it has a rather obvious synchrony between phases and less zonal zonal whereas previously this synchrony is just impromptu and some peaks in zonal or antizonalità.

Midrange NH (55-35N) and tropical zone (20S-20N):

In the tropical zone and of course there is the history of GW, the GW because it comes from them and in fact we see the Climate Change of 1976 and the step 1998. The change covers the area of 76 ENSO, while the step of 98 were recorded mainly in the area of India and IPWP. The midrange has suffered slightly after the change and would feel quite strong zonal period of the VP around 90 years with the peak absolute. Impressive last winter on the midrange which happens to be the 5th most anomalous of the last 60 years, the most anomalous of 78, thanks to its record high on gpt north polar area.

Finally we see a zoom on the last 3 winters to see what kind of short-term changes are taking place in the winters, and geopotential at 500 hPa temperatures at ground

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The decrease in the area is justified by the strong ENSO of 2008, Nina, Nino is not counterbalanced by the current, then there is a provision to lower PDO with a strong increase of GPT Area Aleutians. Strong cooling over the lands of Asia and America. Area antrtica, except this year, the previous two years had certainly lived two winters neighborhood with decrease of GPT on the continent. Warming over Greenland, indicative of changes in the jet in all the years 2000 and continued in recent years.

A brief analysis but which I hope will give you an idea of what is happening to our winters, and those of other areas worldwide.

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Other data of January, beginning with the AO (Arctic Oscillation). New value very negative in January after the record in December: the value -2.59 which is the 6th lowest in January since 1950.

The winter months hold the record for now sticking to a 1977, December and January AO Media:

EA, East Atlantic:

EA continues its hand was good although down compared to December, +0.92 value, rather high. The EA in January:

Despite such a negative AO, EA has remained quite postive which is not exactly in the statistics of these two indices in some way related. We see the edges of the data to or from EA and January 1950:

The correlation between the two indices is not perfect but enough "synchronous" in the general trend. Lightning actually has a very good correlation with the NAO index Atlantic that it was quite bad both in December than in January.

Snow-Cover:

The snow cover in January was among the most extended from 1967 onwards, the 6th absolute value:

OIv2 SSTA:

OIv2 confirms the data already posted ERSST oceanic anomalies with a slight decrease in January after the maximum of the previous months, 3 hundredths of a degree of decline contro two ERSST. The global data from 1981:

The decrease was evenly distributed between the two hemispheres, although AMO zone and zone IPWP have seen a slight increase. In slight decrease in the Nino 3.4 region after a year of uninterrupted growth, -0.3 °:

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The Hadley Center collects data from the 4 corners of the earth soundings in the data base HadHAT since 1958, 20 years before the satellite measurements of atmospheric temperature. The data is updated in December 2009 and relate to the temperature anomalies in 9 levels of the atmosphere, from 850 to 30hpa.

In this post looks at the data overall monthly smoothed over 7 months with Gaussian method.

In the opening, since it concerns the heights of 850, 700 and 500 hPa shows a trend rather synchronously at 3 heights selected conandamento very similar to that of GW on the surface. You notice a sharp drop from 1958 to 63 and then swinging period but "sub-media" and then a tremendous leap that raises the anomalies of more than halfinfrequently from 1976 to 1980-1. Climb higher with the various "waves".

We have often seen the data of the lower troposphere satellite, this time to support them, UAH, data HadHAT to 700hpa, averaged together to eliminate differences in the average benchmark, more data rounded to 7 months:

As you can see the data and UAH Hadhat are very well aligned except in a couple of times I tried.

We see now the data of middle and upper troposphere, 500, 300 and 200hpa, they've joined the data of the mean tropospheric RSS:

As seen in the graph of the data 200hpa are very different from those at 500 and 300hpa, aligned with each other enough, this also depends on the fact that 200hpa are in the troposphere in tropical latitudes and medie but end up in the stratosphere at high latitudes (north and south). However, this difference is increasing dramatically after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo cheporta a strong cooling in the stratosphere and thus a marked difference between the anomalies at 200 compared to 300hpa. see the trend of differences between the two units, I've marked the volcanoes and the "average" of each period:

What happened in the stratosphere we see with the data of the stratosphere, 150 and 100, very low stratosphere.

... And the data of middle and upper stratosphere:

In both graphs I put the data of the lower troposphere UAH. Very evident declinetemperatures in the stratosphere after the Pinatubo, more and more evident with the height (the smaller the influence 150hpa, high to 50 and 30hpa).

And above this, the fact that after the eruption dell'Agung although there are a sharp drop in temperatures in the stratosphere into the troposphere the differences between 300 and 200hpa decrease whereas increase after El Chichon and Pinatubo especially. The secrets of the last wave of GW are written in these graphs.

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