GW situation in late June

29/06/2010

A flash to the climate a few days after the end of June. I put the anomalies of 500hPa GPT to the latest available five days, 21-26 June, to show what is happening in the tropical zone with the strong decrease of the anomalies of Nino. Notice how the area is canceling the ENSO Anom lie and this is also happening in the Indian zone. Now we see the situation as it was earlier this month, 1-5 June:

Although they were already in decline equatorial anomalies resisted 10mt still positive in the ENSO and Indian.

Let off the ocean SSTA (OIv2):

Available last week, June 23:

Comparison with the first week of the month:

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Accentuation of the negative anomalies in the eastern Pacific, positive anomalies in the reduction of IPWP and TNA, but increased in the northern Atlantic and Pacific Northwest.

If we measure numerically the anomalies on the tropical (20 ° S-20 ° N) we notice a sharp drop in the last two weeks, the maximum +0.65 ° about April we moved to the current +0.28 °:

In the Arctic, the situation is more negative than the record recent years, glacial extent and glacial area are still below the values of 2007 and 2008. Let us consider the distributions of density (violet = 100-95%, about 75% yellow, green from 50% down:

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Compared to 2007 and 2008, 2010, to June 28, shows the almost extinction of the ice in the bay of Labrador. Compared to 2007 the situation is better but worse in the Siberian region of Canada, otherwise than in 2008. Appeared less dense areas in the central Arctic more extensive than in previous years, probably due to the long-AO phase in May and June. We'll see how things go.

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GW in Italy since 1850, July

28/06/2010

In a few days we come in July, in the heart of Summer, and as usual monster data anomalies Area Italian authorities provided by the most important, NOAA, Hadley Center, NASA, UAH. The graph shows opening land along the faults and we see some significant scostamnts between different data sets, especially during 1930-1950. Even in recent years there are obvious differences between GISS and the other two, Hadley and NOAA.

Here we go to sea because of anomalies, ERSST-NOAA:

The performance of ERSST is pretty unanimous in GISS data between 1880 and 1980, then GISS differs far more evident than in Hadley and NOAA-NCDC. In the period 1940-50 there is a clear dyssynchrony in NCDC data showing a decline of anomalies whereas the seas and the other two bodies show us a warm surge, excessive given in Hadley.

From the climatic point of view, despite the differences between different series of numbersic, you can find the hottest trends in medium wave to the 1860-80, 1930-50 and after 1980. The last wave hot apparel stronger than all consisting of two waves of the first, evident, from about 1980 and the second around 2000. Let the past 40 years in greater detail with the annual series of NOAA Reanalisi, HadCRUT3, the data and the tropospheric marine ERSST UAH:

Apart from the annual fluctuations in the apparent surge of anomalies from 1980 that bears the least under heat about 1 ° above the previous average. Then on July 2 in recent years have further increased the strong medium . HadCRUT3 shows peaks much higher than other data but in general all the series are very well synchronized with each other, the troposphere has less obvious abnormalities in recent years.

To get an idea of the meteorological framework on Italy in July placed the temperature data in proportion to the square 850hpa of Rome, central Italy compared:

Since 1950, the average altitude ranged between a minimum of 14 ° to a maximum of 18 °, of course the tips above 20-22 ° correspond to frequent heat waves that characterize this month.

We see the daily distribution during the month, to share 850hpa temperatures and geopotential at 500hPa:

alwarming.blog.meteogiornale.it/files/lugit-roma-850-day.jpg ">

The month shows an increase of temperature and gpt beginning mid month and then stabilized at approximately 18-19 ° to 5810-20 meters 850hpa and 500hPa. This corresponds to the "ridge" of the year continues in part of August, the period of Solleone.

As a last curiosity maximum temperatures of Rome Ciampino Airport in July 1951:

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Soon we enter the climax of the Summer! Happy July.

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Nino 2009-10, a first analysis

06/23/2010

Now that the anomalies of the Nino 3.4 region we have come back negative groped a first analysis of Nino just ended with similar events of the last 30 years: 1982 / 3, the 1986 / 8, the 1994 / 5, the 1997 / 8 and 2006 / 7.

The opening illustration shows the important aspects of Nino 2009/2010: anomalies in the area 3.4 (divided by 2 for graphical reasons), the UAH tropospheric anomalies, the anomalies of the tropical oceans OIv2 (20S-20N) SOI index (divided by 20). What we see is the very rapid return of the index in positive SOI together with the sharp decline in the tropospheric anomalies but Nino and tropical oceans are still near the highest in the normal lag time.

We see the comparison of various indices of ENSO events considered when I tried to hit the highest among them:

Nino 3.4:

Anomalies tropical oceans:

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UAH tropospheric anomalies:

SOI Index:

As Nino (Nino 3.4) was certainly below the events of 98 and 82 and to peer with Nino of 1986 / 7 but it seems like "phased" than others. But the anomalies and especially tropical tropospheric anomalies were second-class andonly to 1998. The tropical anomalies were higher than those of 1998 until mid 2009

We see the comparison with Nino 98:

Now the comparison with Nino 1986 / 7 with the maximum between the two centering Nino in 1986 was very special to half of the year instead of December:

And now, we can compare both Nino and the thing that is very special is the different response of tropospheric anomalies this timeare well aligned with the global tropical anomalies, only slightly lower in 1987, but higher than the tropospheric anomalies of 1986 / 7.

Nino is a key event in the world's climate and come back for sure to bring new data and analysis provided here. Currently we have data comparing the various events of the last 30 years.

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Last as of May 2010, CRU and HadCRUt3

06/22/2010

Here at last given the Hadley Center, which confirms what was already reported by NASA and NOAA, a drop in both overall and GW in May on the land. In fact if we see all the data, averaged together for a common reference, there are no major differences and differences t to the various issues:

The global land and ocean data:

The data of land with the sun as CRU slightly lower than the others but the same line:

Let the data together with that of tropical global HadCRUT3:

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Started declining the tropics with a leap of more than 0.1 °. As is evident from the graph the trend in the tropics is more "enhanced" compared to the global and the ups and downs depending Nino events / a are much more "steep" the overall figure.

With this we put on file in May 2010, the month still very hot due to the lag time than the maximum Nino December to January. Now we will proceed as in the ENSO phase, which is now negative, and negative if the framework is extended to the oceanic areas of competence of an incoming Nina. If it continues we will see a slow steady decline in global abnormalities and a steep drop in the tropical.

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Update on the Mediterranean GW

06/21/2010

I spoke of the Mediterranean just a year ago, " Mare Nostrum, the Mediterranean and the GW "A year and a ride on the redo history of anomalies in our current sea and data of a given year and some more.

The graph shows the opening series ERSST mediterranean area (30 ° -45 ° N, 0 ° -35 ° E) and its hot and cold waves, in sharp sync with the trend of the anomalies of nearby and adjacent ocean Atlantic we see in the next graph by index AMO:

The last wave is hot but stronger than the previous two and is playing very strong since the early '90s, after decreasing for Pinatubo. We see the trend and annual data on round three years the annual winter and summer:

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In this chart you appreciate some things more clearly:

the sharp rise from about 1994 onwards, with stabilization at higher values after 98 Nino overcoming the strong anomalies in the last 20 years on summer and winter, something that happened only in 1860-80 and 1940-50 Minimum clear from early in the summer of 1976 climate change

Then, according to data ERSST, the fact of having very abnormal summer than the winter is something very recent. This we can see it in detail in the graph of monthly anomalies:

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The average 1998-2010 shows a clear ripple with maximum between June and July. In the chart I have also reported the data of 2010, the year of 2009 and warmer, 2003, and the coldest of the last 10 years, 2005. This year, the anomalies are quite high and also well above the averages 98-2010.

Now we see a little closer to the trend of anomalies from 1979 to now is that with ERSST with OIv2:

It 'pretty obvious that we are experiencing the warm phase from 1999 onwards is to be classified as a "jump" and not a climate trend upward. Anomalies in fact after a quick climb values have fluctuated morehigh but no trend. A new evidence of climate step in 1998 of which I speak often.

If we look at the last 10 years the trend is in fact flat if not slightly decreasing, weekly data:

So we are experiencing a "post 1998" a step encouraged by an exceptional climate Nino AMO in connection with a phase of increase. The correlation in the Mediterranean with the Atlantic (the beloved) is evident, so there is obviously expect a withdrawal of the anomalies when the Atlantic will begin its descent to the negativity index.

For now we are very positive values, as seen above, with a very abnormal compared to Aprillthough the last year and May that stopped the growth, perhaps due to the fact that the wave of the 2009-10 Nino is over and now both the AMO index that anomalies of the mare nostrum will gradually normalizing to the mean period.

Currently, the anomaly has decreased to +0.66 ° because of our polar seas, but further east the appeals warm winter which follow already on, show a very warm sea:

The heat content of the mass is close to normal marine, currently +0.22 (x10 to 21 Joules) and shows no trend over the past 10 years (source: http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs/B4G_indicators/HC_anomaly.htm):

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Cold in South Africa!

06/20/2010

Unfortunately football cold, a national real willing but still lacks quality and speed but also of luck. Good luck to the blues!

From the perspective of climate place the curiosity that already from the beginning of the month, especially since the World Cup, the Southern African region is one of the hardest-hit areastion by negative anomalies. In the chart the last three days available reanalisi NOAA-ESRL show an average chilly eastern Pacific while still very hot the tropical Atlantic, northern Africa and southern Asia. Fresh northern Europe and hot rather than the southeast. Attention to the Indian Ocean that is refreshing in its central area dramatically.

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Update SSTA, guest post

06/20/2010

Riproto interesting data shown by Dr. Roy Spenscer on its website . The data are drawn from TV showsllite AQUA AMSR-E with the instrumentation, between 60 ° S and 60 ° N on the basis of the average lifetime of the satellite and shown on the graph of opening, mid 2002-present.

What the chart shows opening is the sharp decline in the Nino 3.4 ENSO and global anomalies extrapolari. One interesting thing is reported by Spencer is the "speed" of drop zone on ENSO, the "change rate":

As seen in the graph the rate of change is about values fortissmi down, never seen since 2002. The graph shows how the rate of change is presented last Nina 2007 / 8, a strong initial drop and then stabilize on oscillating negative accruals for a period of almost one year. Nino phase had two stages: first in 2008 which led by Nina to neutral phase and then, after a phase of new media descent, a phase of approximately 1 year of increases.

Dr. Roy Spencer also explains why you are having this phase of general decline: because the outflow of infrared radiation reflected from the ocean areas has resulted in a powerfully positive, heat transfer, and this due to the increased reflectivity due cloud cover. The graph:

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Comparing the two charts, the last and penultimate, we can also understand how ENSO phases influence on the release and accumulation of heat. Looking at just the previous stage of Nina and Nino then known as the phase of decline to the minimum Nina corresponded to losses of heat above average but then it reversed its own due to the decrease in cloudiness induced by cold oceanic stage and then again increase the heat build up and start the decline phase to a phase Nina warmer.

The cross section of oceanic equatorial zone yesterday shows the current state of ENSO phase appears clearly oriented to the negative, both on the surface of the ocean Content nell'Heat first 300m of the ocean.

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All outlook now see Nina medium-strong, as early as next month and at least until January:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/climateforecasts/plots/CGCMV1/forecast_indices/nino/gmao/jun10_fore_nino3_sm.png

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The Strange Case of Chile GW

17/06/2010

Looking at the GW in Chile I came across the strangest and controversial case so far analyzed. Chile extends well into latitude and therefore has several different climatic zones, but this does not justify the significant inconsistencies between the data I will now explain.

The following graph is the set of smoothed datavarious locations, from north to south highlighted in the map of openness, which I joined because the blunt of oceanic anomalies ERSST:

What is evident is an EXTREMELY dissonance data of the stations compared to the ocean and this is in no way justifiable because all locations, except the capital Santiago, overlooking the ocean and then the climate will be affected should clearly and evident.

In reality, the dissonance mainly concerns the period from 1900 to 1970 about the last 40 years have a greater convergence.

To see if the problem depended on the latitudinal Chile I analyzed separately from those places in the northlle Southern and compared with the anomalies of the ocean north and south:

The two locations in the north are pretty good but definitely not those of the south, is unthinkable behavior so different between land and ocean anomalies in the wet.

What could be the problem? Obviously mistakes (instrumentation, changes places etc. ..) in measurements on the ground or lack of ocean measurements, which were then extrapolated from dat the average available nearby. In practice, who measured the oceanic anomalies from 1900 to 1970? And what kind of errors in measurements we were on the ground? A big problem.

I tried to see if the series had different data HadSST2 but ... ..

No, the British and American series have the same trend, the mystery remains.

We see then how CRU and GHCN have tried to address these discrepancies with the "adjustments" of the station data (medium rectangle on geographic Chile):

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There was some strong correction and data should be adjusted to place themselves in a position intermdia between measures of actual stations and oceanic anomalies, but the distance is still exaggerated.

In practice we will never know the course "real" than GW on Chile in the last century, we know only in the last 40 years, more or less flat after taking the unusual climate change in 1976.

The averages of the localities analyzed for the distribution of information on climate that long extension of land overlooking the South Pacific:

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GW update, May 2010 GW lands and oceans

16/06/2010

Now lacks only the data CRU Hadley Center since May and mix land and oceans (HadCRUt3), leaving data and NOAA HadSST2 so we can have a look at GW surface.

And 'confirmed the general decline from their highs in March and in May it occato the tenth grade in March. Rather this time synchronous data on average 0.6 ° (average across institutions on a common basis between 2006 and mediated current) with GISS even more "cool" after months of all over-estimate than others. The graph of the opening up of the GW of complex surfaces, land and oceans. We see the sun because of Terre:

The same thing happened on the land with a drop of about 0.2 ° from their highs in March.

Oceans:

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Here we see a different behavior than the NOAA and Hadley OIv2. The latter two show a peak anomaly in April and then fell in May as the NOAA, NOAA ERSST the officer, saw a stable situation in the last three months close to the maximum that NOAA places last summer.

So we are still at very high values of anomalies, especially over the oceans, despite the area ENSO is in sharp decline. We will see in June which should show a decline more evident in the oceans and the troposphere, while it is difficult to see what will happen only on land. CRU expect, given the historically most important and solid despite the "critical" for e-mail stolen.

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GW update, mid-June 2010

06/15/2010

A stock of the situation in mid-month. Top anomalies near the ground 1 to June 12 seconds NOAA-ESRL. Decreased clearly the anomalies on the Arctic and Greenland were very high throughout the winter and spring. Remains fairly anomalous part of Greenland el 'Alaska. Abnormalities disappeared from the equatorial Pacific due to the decrease of ENS, remain in the tropical Atlantic and extending to Central Europe and Asia-North. In accordance with the strong decline in average reanalisi to 12 June compared to May.

Let the oceans:

Situation at June 13 compared to 1 June:

The anomalies are available according to the classical scheme by Nina, is pI was still very high anomaly of the Atlantic in general and in particular the tropical zone even though there was decline in the east.

Overall we had a global minimum in the first week of June with a subsequent sharp increase:

Nino instead continues its decline:

The Troposphere:

Data from AMSU channel 5 we show a continuing decline ldue started months ago, however values of anomaly is rather to you:

The Arctic:

Attention to this sensitive area that has experienced a very hot winter for all the shares though, it seems that the presence of anticyclones winter winds has created a good enough thickness in the central area. Attention is also due to the fact that the Arctic is currently extending the lowest ever recorded since 2003. However, these are maps of the distribution and concentration of ice in 2010 to 14 June, 2008 and 2007, but 2009 is not available to other set is better than this year:

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I leave you to view and comment cards because I think there's absolutely nothing to say except to observe how the situation evolves.

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